Calculation of Manchester's Share of Emissions from Aviation

A crude way of working out Manchester's share of emissions from aviation is to take the UK's total emissions from aviation, divide it by the number of people in the UK to get a per capita emissions figure, and then multiplying that by the number of people in Manchester (on the assumption that the average Manc flies roughly the same amount as the average Brit):

In 2006:

1. the UK's share of emissions from aviation was 37.9 million tonnes CO2 [1]
2. the population of the UK was 60.6 million [2]
3. the UK's per capita emissions from aviation (a divided by b) works out as 0.625 tonnes.
4. Manchester's population is around 450,000 [3]
5. Manchester's share of aviation emissions in 2006 (c multiplied by d) works out at around 280,000 tonnes.

In 2030:

1. the UK's share of aviation emissions is predicted to rise to 59 million tonnes [1]
2. the UK's population is predicted to rise to 71 million [4]
3. the UK's per capita emissions would therefore rise to 0.83 tonnes. 
4. I haven't found a specific forecast for Manchester's population in 2030, but let's estimate 500,000.
5. Manchester's share of aviation emissions would therefore rise to 415,000 tonnes.

References

[1] http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/aviation/environmentalissues/ukairdemandandco2forecasts/

[2] http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=6

[3] http://www.manchester.gov.uk/site/scripts/documents_info.php?documentID=438

[4] http://www.gad.gov.uk/Publications/Demography_and_Statistics_Publications_Archive.asp